Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Its too big. Right now, its horrible. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. Port Clinton, Ohio. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. This is a high farming community.. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. He pissed off a lot of people. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. We believe that there are two main reasons. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. . He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. This includes personalizing content and advertising. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. I would never vote any other way. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! In addition to Florida Gov. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. I got a life. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. He is his own worst enemy.. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. People need to get a job, get out and work. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. Youre not getting anybody perfect. He says Democratic Gov. . The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Its crazy. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Farming also is huge here. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Two states have announced recounts. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. They run the gamut from. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties.